This Week in Auto Racing March 5 - 7

Autoracing Betting Lines

03/02/2010 - Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR returns to the East Coast, as the Sprint Cup and Camping World Truck Series tackle one of the fastest tracks on the circuit.

NASCAR

Sprint Cup Series

Kobalt Tools 500 - Atlanta Motor Speedway - Hampton, GA

Since his disappointing 35th-place finish in the season-opening Daytona 500, Jimmie Johnson has soared to fifth in the points standings with consecutive victories at California and Las Vegas.

Johnson's win at California came with a little bit of luck. The four-time defending Sprint Cup Series champion benefited from a late-race caution when he pitted just before the yellow flag was displayed. He then held off a hard- charging Kevin Harvick in the closing laps.

Last Sunday, Johnson spoiled Jeff Gordon's dominate day at Las Vegas. Gordon led a track-record 219 laps, but he took two new tires only during his final pit stop. After putting on four tires, Johnson chased down his Hendrick Motorsports teammate and then made the winning pass with 17 laps to go.

It's early in the season, but Johnson's "drive for five" straight titles appears to be in full gear.

"We're excited," Johnson said. "It's early in the year, and it's a relief to know that we worked in the right areas over the off-season. Richmond [fall race] is a long way away from right now. We need to keep collecting points, winning races, make the Chase and then get to work for what we're really here for."

If Johnson wins this weekend at Atlanta, it will be his 50th career victory, which will place him in a tie with Ned Jarrett and 2010 NASCAR Hall of Fame inductee Junior Johnson for 10th on the series' all-time race winners list.

Johnson has three victories at Atlanta, including a season sweep at the fast 1.54-mile track in 2007.

Heading into Atlanta, Harvick holds a 47-point lead over his Richard Childress Racing teammate Clint Bowyer. The resurgence of RCR continued at Las Vegas, with Harvick, Bowyer and Jeff Gordon turning in impressive performances once again. All three drivers have finished no worse than 11th in the first three races.

Atlanta has been one Harvick's best tracks. Despite a 19th-place result in points last season, Harvick finished fourth at Atlanta one year ago and then followed up with a second-place run there last September.

"We are really looking forward to Atlanta based upon how we ran there last time," Harvick said. "It has become one of those tracks that has been really good for us in anything that we have been racing there over the past three or four years."

Harvick's first Cup victory came at Atlanta on March 11, 2001, just weeks after RCR named him as replacement driver for Dale Earnhardt following Earnhardt's fatal crash in the Daytona 500. Harvick edged Gordon by 0.006 seconds at Atlanta for his maiden win in just his third start.

"I don't remember really anything from that day," Harvick said. "There were just so many different emotions and things that ran through my head that it was just kind of more of a strange moment than it was anything."

Ryan Newman will celebrate a career milestone at Atlanta, as the Stewart-Haas Racing driver is expected to make his 300th career start in NASCAR's top division. Newman is tied with Buddy Baker for most poles at Atlanta with seven. He won six consecutive poles there from March 2003 to October 2005.

"Atlanta has always been a place where I like to qualify, and it would be an honor to get the all-time pole record there," Newman said.

Newman has struggled in the early season, finishing 34th (Daytona), 36th (California) and 18th (Las Vegas). He currently is 32nd in points.

Forty-six teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Kobalt Tools 500.

Camping World Truck Series

Atlanta 200 - Atlanta Motor Speedway - Hampton, GA

After a two-week break, the Camping World Truck Series returns to action at Atlanta.

The series kicked off their season on February 12 at Daytona, with Timothy Peters winning the 250-mile race in thrilling fashion. Todd Bodine held the lead on the final lap, but Peters shoved Bodine up the track to claim the top spot. He went on to score his second career victory in the series.

"It's a very cool feeling being the points leader of the series, but Atlanta changes the game," Peters said. "It's a privilege to be in this position, but we also know it's our job to stay up there the entire season."

Peters has finished no better than 15th in his first three starts at Atlanta.

Kyle Busch is the defending Atlanta race winner. Busch, who is in his first year as driver and owner of a truck team, has four wins at Atlanta. If he takes the checkered flag for Saturday's event, he will join Bodine as the only drivers to score five series victories at the same track. Bodine has five wins at Texas.

"It's a track I really like," Busch said. "It's fast and the truck races are always really good. Obviously, getting a win there would be really huge, because it would be the first for Kyle Busch Motorsports."

Busch and Kevin Harvick are the only Sprint Cup Series regulars on the entry list for the Atlanta truck race. Nationwide Series veteran Steve Wallace is entered as well. Wallace will make his truck debut, driving the No.15 Toyota for Billy Ballew Motorsports.

For the first time since in nearly six years, Geoff Bodine will compete in a truck race. Bodine will drive the No.95 Dodge for Danny Gill Racing. His last start came in July 2004 at Kentucky.

Bodine has spent the past several weeks at the Winter Olympics in Vancouver, overseeing the fortunes of his Bo-Dyn Bobsleds that carried the United States' four-man bobsled team to its first gold medal in the 62-year history of the event.

Thirty-nine teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Atlanta 200.

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Super Bowl 2009 Betting

Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions

Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.

Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.

Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.

If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.

Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.

By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.

In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.

So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.

While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.

There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.

In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:

SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.

XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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