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05/27/2010 - Storrs, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The University of Connecticut has called a news conference for 10 a.m. (et) Friday at Gampel Pavilion, when the school is expected to disclose its review of possible recruiting violations in the men's basketball program.
The Hartford Courant reported Thursday night that assistant coach Patrick Sellers and director of basketball operations Beau Archibald have resigned from the staff due to the allegations that were first reported by Yahoo! Sports in March 2009.
UConn reportedly violated NCAA rules in the recruitment of Nate Miles, who was expelled from school in October of 2008 without even practicing with the Huskies. Yahoo! Sports conducted a six-month investigation and said Miles was provided with lodging, meals and transportation by Josh Nochimson -- a professional agent and a former UConn student manager.
Since Nochimson had a relationship with UConn basketball, the NCAA defines him as a person with "athletic interests" for the school. Therefore, he would be unable to be involved in the recruiting process.
The report also stated that the UConn basketball staff, including five different coaches, had at least 1,565 phone and text communications with Nochimson during Miles' recruitment between 2006 and 2008. Connecticut head coach Jim Calhoun was said to have been involved in 16 of those calls.
The Yahoo! report indicated that former UConn assistant coach Tom Moore made 27 calls to people close to Miles in December 2006. The NCAA permits just one call per month to prospective recruits in a player's junior year of high school.
Moore, according to the Yahoo! report, knew Miles had a relationship with Nochimson, another potential NCAA violation. Moore has since left UConn and is the head coach at Quinnipiac University.
The report states that Nochimson advised Miles, who eventually enrolled at UConn in June 2008 after attending five high schools in four different states.
In late September 2008, Miles was arrested by UConn campus police and issued a restraining order after a female student said she was physically and sexually assaulted by him. Miles then made contact with the woman, leading to felony charges of violating a restraining order.
The school expelled Miles in early October before basketball practice began. Miles eventually enrolled at the College of Southern Idaho.
Calhoun received a five-year contract extension through the 2014 season earlier this month. The Courant reports Calhoun, athletic director Jeff Hathaway and Rick Evrard, the school's outside counsel for NCAA-related matters, will be at the press conference.
<< Langer, Freeman share Senior PGA lead
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - World Golf Hall of Famer Bernhard Langer fired a
six-under 66 Thursday to join Robin Freeman in the lead after the opening
round of the Senior PGA Championship.
Langer, who has topped the Champions Tour
<< Battle of unbeatens as Crew host Galaxy
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Columbus Crew host the Los Angeles Galaxy
on Saturday night in Major League Soccer action in what very well could be a
preview of MLS Cup 2010.
Both teams are unbeaten just under a third of the way i
<< Houston hopes to start streak vs. expansion Union
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Dynamo host the expansion
Philadelphia Union on Saturday night in Major League Soccer action at
Robertson Stadium.
The Dynamo (5-4-1) will be gunning for their first winning
<< Wizards searching for elusive win at RSL
Sandy, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Salt Lake puts its perfect May record on the
line vs. the visiting Kansas City Wizards on Saturday night in Major League
Soccer action at Rio Tinto Stadium.
RSL (5-3-1) has won its previous four games
Kubel's two homers power Twins over Yankees >>
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Kubel slugged a pair of home runs and
drove in five while Nick Blackburn worked effectively over seven innings, as
the Twins avoided a three-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees with an 8-2
win at
Mets whitewash Phillies again, complete rare shutout sweep >>
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Pelfrey gave up just three hits in seven
innings and the New York Mets blanked the Philadelphia Phillies again, 3-0, to
complete a rare three-game whitewash of the NL East leaders at Citi Field.
The Met
Braves outlast Marlins, rain in Florida >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Martin Prado went 3-for-6 with two runs batted in
and David Ross knocked in a pair, as the Atlanta Braves handled the Florida
Marlins, 8-3, in the rubber match of a three-game series at Sun Life Stadium.
Yunel
Flyers fans still bullish on their Bullies >>
PHILADELPHIA (AP) -In an era when hockey games may as well have been held inside the squared circle, the Broad Street Bullies spilled enough blood to fill a decade's worth of Stanley Cups.They embraced their moniker as the most despised team in the
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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