AL Central: Tribe's future will take shape in second half

Baseball Betting Lines

07/16/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For Cleveland Indians fans, the hard part is over.

They've endured a first half of the season that saw their team finish 20 games below .500 (34-54) and fall 15 1/2 games off the pace in the American League Central. Granted, not even the most die-hard Cleveland fans were penciling the Indians into a postseason spot in 2010. General manager Mark Shapiro made certain to temper any such expectations at the outset of the season.

Having just limped past the halfway point of the season, the Indians will use the second half to put their future plans into focus. And despite being buried in the standings and having the lowest attendance figures in the majors, there are a few reasons for optimism in Cleveland.

At the forefront is rookie catcher Carlos Santana, who so far has certainly lived up to his super-prospect hype. In only 95 big league at-bats, Santana has homered five times, driven in 16 runs and hit .284. Likewise, first baseman Matt LaPorta, the key prospect in the CC Sabathia deal in 2008, has started to come along lately. In 12 games since being recalled from a minor league detour on June 27, he's hit .357 with four homers and 11 RBI.

But the one guy who has really rewarded the organization for its patience is starting pitcher Fausto Carmona (8-7), who earned his first All-Star nod with a 3.64 ERA and a pair of complete games through 18 starts. Most importantly, the right-hander has drastically cut down on the number of walks that led to his demotion to the minors last year.

Fellow starter Jake Westbrook may never produce to the level of his $11 million annual salary, though lately he has made steady progress in his return from Tommy John surgery. It would be a bonus for the front office if he has pitched well enough to attract an offer from a team looking for starting pitching help at the trade deadline.

Cleveland took a big hit with the season-ending knee surgery to three-time All-Star outfielder Grady Sizemore in May. Injuries to right fielder Shin-Soo Choo (thumb) and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (forearm) obviously haven't helped the Tribe's fortunes at the plate as well, although both are targeting a return by the end of July. Before his thumb injury on July 2, Choo was in line for an All-Star nod with a .286 batting average, 13 home runs and 43 RBI.

Mitch Talbot has been a pleasant surprise in the rotation, leading all AL rookies with eight wins. In addition, fellow starter Justin Masterson seemed to get into a groove over his last few starts. And in the bullpen, Chris Perez has emerged as a legitimate candidate to take over the closer's job.

All in all, things aren't looking so bleak for incoming GM Chris Antonetti, who will replace Shapiro at the end of the season. Still, the primary objective for manager Manny Acta and the front office is to identify which players will be around for the long haul. The evaluation process takes center stage when the team resumes play Friday night.

"I just want these young kids to get out and play hard," Acta said. "We're going to get something out of it. We're going to be able to see who's going to join that core that we're building for the future."

ROOKIES BOESCH, SCHERZER KEY FOR TIGERS' SECOND HALF

When looking at how the Detroit Tigers' roster shapes up, it's given that Miguel Cabrera will put up big power numbers, Justin Verlander will mow down opposing lineups, and Johnny Damon will continue to make key veteran contributions. But to seize the top spot in the AL Central, it's up to some of Detroit's younger guys to produce in the second half.

Cue rookie outfielder Brennan Boesch and 26-year-old No. 2 starter Max Scherzer, both of whom have been instrumental in the Tigers' first-half record (48-38). In eight starts since returning from his midseason demotion to Triple-A Toledo, Scherzer is 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA, averaging 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Boesch has his name in the mix for Rookie of the Year honors thanks to a ridiculous .342 batting average, 12 homers and 49 RBI. He boasts a .593 slugging average and is on pace for nearly 300 total bases as a rookie.

It's tough to imagine Boesch keeping up that kind of pace for the duration of the season, but the Tigers do need his presence in the middle of the lineup. As for Scherzer, the Tigers need him to continue to bridge the gap between Verlander and the rest of the rotation.

If both can achieve their respective goals, it would go a long way toward helping the Tigers finally capture their first AL Central crown.

WHITE SOX PICK UP RIGHT WHERE THEY LEFT OFF

When a team is as hot as the Chicago White Sox have been, typically the last thing the players want is some time off. Winners of eight straight heading into the All-Star break, you could hardly blame the White Sox for wanting to keep the train rolling.

Nevertheless, this week's three-day layoff does not appear to have taken any wind out of Chicago's sails, as the team resumed play Thursday with an 8-7 win over the Minnesota Twins for their ninth consecutive triumph. Prior to that victory, in which Chicago rallied back from a four-run deficit, manager Ozzie Guillen put into perspective what a trip to the playoffs this season would mean to him.

"If we go to the playoffs, it will be most satisfying year I have had in seven years with this ballclub," Guillen told the Chicago Tribune. "This one will be more exciting than the two (previous) playoffs for me."

Over their last 31 games, the White Sox are an incredible 26-5. If they keep up this pace much longer, Guillen figures to be one very satisfied manager.

ROYALS TWEAKING ROTATION FOR SECOND HALF

The baseball adage, "You're only as good as your next day's starting pitcher" is about as old as the game itself. Still, the saying holds true today, as it will for years to come.

That brings us to the Kansas City Royals, whose starters have assembled an unsightly 5.11 ERA as a group. The best of the bunch, reigning AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, has fallen victim to insufficient run support, although he's gone 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA over his last five starts to lower his season ERA to 3.71. The staff ace, was scratched from his scheduled start on Sunday with some discomfort in his shoulder, has only a 5-8 record for the year.

Projected No. 2 starter Gil Meche was placed on the 60-day DL on Thursday, a move that was designed to clear roster space for Henry Barrera, who was ending a rehab assignment. Meche is eligible for reinstatement on July 25, though he has not pitched since May 25 and will require some time on a Minor League rehab assignment.

Former No. 1 overall draft pick Luke Hochevar has been out since June 11 with a sprained elbow, though he hasn't been particularly effective anyway in pitching to a 5-4 record and a 4.96 ERA in 13 starts before the injury.

All of that has left manager Ned Yost scrambling. He has even tinkered the rotation so as to line up Brian Bannister for as many day starts as possible.

In six daytime starts this year, Bannister is 4-0 with a 2.37 ERA. But in 12 outing as night, he is 3-7 with a 7.45 ERA. By slotting Bannister in the No. 3 spot in the rotation, four of his next nine starts will come in day games.

Of course, it will take more than Yost's tinkering for the Royals' starters to excel in the second half.

"We have to play consistent baseball, and it all revolves around your starting pitching," Yost told the Kansas City Star. "If we're going to be in it, our starting pitching has to be able to take us to that point."

HITS KEEP COMING FOR FADING TWINS

Already with a 3-8 record in July, the Minnesota Twins can ill-afford many more bad breaks if they are to stay in contention for the AL Central crown. However, they were dealt a big blow on Thursday, when four-time All-Star first baseman and former league MVP Justin Morneau was placed on the 15-day DL with lingering symptoms from a concussion suffered during a collision at second base on July 7.

Morneau worked out for about 25 minutes on an elliptical machine Thursday morning, but later felt some "fogginess" and decided a DL stint would be best to clear out all the cobwebs.

In other injury news, second baseman Alexi Casilla has moved up to Double-A as he rehabs from bone spurs in his right elbow. According to manager Ron Gardenhire, Casilla has seven or eight days left on his rehab assignment, pending any setbacks. Meanwhile, no timeline has been set on reliever Clay Condrey, who has been dealing with a right elbow injury. The right-hander has been touring doctor's offices, with Gardenhire telling the team's website the injury "isn't looking good."

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MySportsbook.com: NFL draft - The NFC South


In part two of MySportsbook.com’s draft preview, we’ll take a look at a division that was extremely disappointing last season: the NFC South.  Many “experts” predicted the Panthers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, of course they could not even make the playoffs in an extremely weak NFC.  The Saints definitely made up for the disappointing seasons of their NFC South brethren by exploding out of no where en route to the NFC Championship game.  For the avid NFL gambler, it is imperative to pay attention to the NFL draft.  Although free agency gets a ton of publicity, the successful franchises build their teams around the draft.

1. New Orleans Saints
Who would have thought this time last year that the Saints would be the favorites to win the NFC South for the 2007 campaign?  New Orleans is loaded with firepower on the offensive side of the ball but with the exodus of Joe Horn they will most likely look to draft a WR on Day 1.  Despite having the NFL’s 3rd ranked pass defense last season, the Saints will most likely upgrade their CB’s with one of their first two picks. Other possibilities for the Saints will be TE and DT.  Because of where they will be selecting (27th), the Saints could go the “best available player” route which could net a LB.

Key additions: Eric Johnson TE, Troy Evans LB, David Patten WR
Key loses: Joe Horn WR,
Team needs: CB, WR, TE, LB, DT
Possible draftees: Aaron Ross CB Texas, Darrelle Revis CB Pitt, Ted Ginn Jr. WR OSU, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Chris Houston CB Arkansas, Greg Olsen TE Miami

2. Carolina Panthers
Carolina was one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL last season.  With the signing of David Carr, expect the very first quarterback controversy to come out of Carolina if Jake Delhomme doesn’t rebound quickly from an average 2007 season. With veteran safety Mike Minter getting up there in age, they will look to draft a safety on Day 1 but probably not in the first round.  LB is another need with the loss of Chris Draft to go along with Dan Morgan’s concussion problems.  If TE Greg Olsen is still on the board, he might be too good to pass up despite their needs on the defensive side of the ball.

Key additions: David Carr QB
Key loses: Chris Draft LB
Team needs: LB, TE, S, OT
Possible draftees: Greg Olsen TE Miami, Patrick Willis LB Ole Miss, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Levi Brown OT PSU

3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were another NFC South team to have a disappointing 2007 season.  The Falcons have been plenty busy during the off season with plenty of players coming and going including a new head coach.  The Falcons were able to improve their draft position with the trade of coveted backup QB Matt Schaub.  High on the list of Day 1 needs will be a defensive end to replace Patrick Kerney and a hard hitting safety since Lawyer Milloy is nearing the end of his career.  With an additional 2nd round pick, the Falcons could attempt to trade up to acquire local product WR Calvin Johnson. 

Key additions: Joey Harrington QB, Toniu Fonoti OG, Joe Horn WR
Key loses: Justin Griffen RB, Patrick Kerney DE, Matt Lehr OG, Ashley Lelie WR, Matt Schaub QB
Team needs: DE, S, OT, WR, DT
Possible draftees: LaRon Landry S LSU, Amobi Okoye DT Louisville, Levi Brown OT PSU, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas, Alan Branch DT Michigan

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age really caught up to the Bucs last season.  The Bucs still have plenty of household names on defense in Ronde Barber, Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks but the one thing those three have in common is unfortunately age.  It is imperative for the Bucs to get much younger, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Despite having bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball, WR Calvin Johnson is the most likely pick if he is still available when the Bucs pick at the four spot.  This would suit Bucs’ faithful just fine as Johnson is widely considered the top talent in the draft and it is a position of need for the Bucs.

Key additions: Jeff Garcia QB, Kevin Carter DE, Torrie Cox CB, Cato June LB
Key loses: Dewayne White DE, Sean Mahan OG
Team needs: WR, LB, DE, CB (Youth on defense!)
Possible draftees: Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech, Gains Adams DE Clemson, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas

It is never too early to start betting on the NFL. Log on to MySportsbook.com to checkout all of the NFL futures for the upcoming season.  On the clock: the NFC North

Odds to win the NFC South:
New Orleans Saints 8-5
Carolina Panthers 2-1
Atlanta Falcons 12-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-2    

Odds to win the NFC:
New Orleans Saints 13-2
Carolina Panthers 7-1
Atlanta Falcons 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-1

Odds to win the Super Bowl:
New Orleans Saints 18-1
Carolina Panthers 20-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75-1

To visit this sportsbook get to MySportsbook.com for all your online sportsbook needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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